Solar Activity at a Long Time Low?

[Bob_riggs]

An interesting article from the Investor's Business Daily. Comments from solar observers, here on AC?

© 2009 by Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. Reprinted with permission”

Apocalypse Sun?

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Tuesday, June 02, 2009 4:20 PM PT
Climate Change: NASA predicts the lowest sunspot activity since 1928. Is a major solar storm in the offing? While we worry about man-made warming, the sun may soon show us who's boss.
Read More: Global Warming


It's the sort of news that makes one's eyes glaze over. "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," said Doug Biesecker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Yes, space has weather, in the form of solar radiation that varies with solar activity in the form of sunspots and solar flares. Biesecker heads an NOAA panel that keeps an eye on such things and released this latest report.

But this dry statistic has more significance for the earth and its climate than all of Al Gore's gloom and doom about tailpipe emissions and rising sea levels. Whether the warm-mongers like it or not, the sun rules earth's climate — always has and always will.

First noticed in the 1800s, solar activity runs in roughly 11-year cycles. Some are as short as nine years or as long as 14. The valleys are usually brief, a couple of years, but sometimes, for reasons not fully understood, they stretch out for decades.

In the 17th century, a 70-year period of little or no sunspot activity known as the Maunder Minimum spawned what has become known as the Little Ice Age, which extended from roughly the 16th century to the 19th.
Washington's famous winter at Valley Forge was part of that natural phenomenon. So was Napoleon's bitter retreat from Moscow. During the winter of 1779-1780, the Hudson River was solid ice for five weeks. Early settlers going West crossed a frozen Mississippi near present-day St. Louis in 1799.

Global warming, you may have noticed, seemingly stopped dead in its tracks in 1998. Solar activity is in a valley right now, the deepest of the past century. NOAA reports that in 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind and low solar radiance.

The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "In our professional careers, we've never seen anything like it. Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

If the sun stays this quiet, is another Little Ice Age possible? NASA says it has detected a tiny uptick in solar radio emissions. This may be a sign of a return to normalcy, something similar to a dormant volcano returning to life.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we're predicting for 2013."

That 1859 event electrified transmission cables, started fires in telegraph offices and produced Northern Lights bright enough to read a newspaper by. A recent report by by the National Academy of Sciences found that if such a storm occurred today, it could cause up to $2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure.

The National Research Council has estimated that such a storm would play havoc with our power grid, resulting in "large-scale blackouts affecting more than 130 million people (in the U.S.) and (exposing) more than 350 major transformers to the risk of permanent damage."

NASA says this solar cycle will peak in 2013. The Mayan calendar identifies Dec. 12, 2012, as the end of the world as we know it. Seems to us we might better spend our money protecting our power grid and high-tech infrastructure against such a possibility rather than worrying about the emission standards for our cars.

That, and stock up on sunscreen.

[budguinn]

you mean it isn't cows passing wind that is causing the global warming......
I have always believed the Man Caused Global Warming was a hoax and a scaremonger technique by Scientists, that should know better, to get funding......to "study the situation". You notice that they don't even call it Global Warming any more.....it's "Climate Change".
And interestingly the UN panel on climate change didn't even take into account Mr. Sun.......What??....yup.......and they don't even have a clue on what to do with the 95% of green house gases.....Water Vapor.

I saw another recent article on the same thing.....I think it was by a Russian scientist/group...and they were actually predicting the possibility of another ice age.
Remember it was just back in 1977/78 that most american scientists were predicting an overall cooling/ice age.

Not only is the weather cyclical, so are scientific opinions......and their opinions are almost as valuable as the ten day forecast on weather.com.

But don't forget......"We need more funding to study it".

[Bob_riggs]

Sorry, Bud, I guess I missed your response to this. Looks like I could have just PM'd the article to you as no one else appears to have found it interesting...how like the state of the Nation! Its like nearly everyone has switched their brain into neutral.

I agree, I am amazed that bovine flatulence is not at the root of it all, too. Still, it was good for a Nobel Prize and tons on grant money.

We live in interesting times, my friend...

[Beard]

Originally Posted by budguinn

you mean it isn't cows passing wind that is causing the global warming......

Good thing cows can't use Zippo's.

I've heard of farmers bleeding gas from bloating cows with a small tube (doesn't harm the cow). Supposedly they could hold a cigarette lighter to the end of the tube and get a substantial flame.

I've also seen idiots ignite farts... Tip: if you have to do it, keep your pants on.

I don't reckon either of those bio-torches contribute much to global warming. I suppose if you could come up with some kind of device that automatically burns cow farts, it might actually help the problem with methane in the air. Cows probably wouldn't like it. Get 'em plenty of exercise, though.

[Bob_riggs]

"...how like the state of the Nation! Its like nearly everyone has switched their brain into neutral."

Thanks, Beard, you make my point...

[Jaxdialation]

This article is of zero interest IBD is a business rag with little interest in giving the complete story.
These are only in snippets taken out of context.
Go here and start your research.
Yes activity has been unusually low, but that is the only fact that is known for sure. Solar Activity in Solar Cycle 24

Next time you challenge our intellectual skills do it with better sources. Whats next asking us to deal with Twitter posts?

[Bob_riggs]

Oh ho, a "flamer" in our ranks. Well, I ain't playin'...

[Jaxdialation]

Get out of neutral and get engaged. What is your point of view regarding Cycle 24?

Please don't flame us for having our brains switched off, for not reacting to a cut and pasted article to which you added no thought other than to say it is "interesting".

Originally Posted by Bob_riggs

"...how like the state of the Nation! Its like nearly everyone has switched their brain into neutral."

Thanks, Beard, you make my point...